Thought for Friday: The Hidden Value of Exponential Change

Here’s a video from Pascal Finette of Singularity U on “Understanding the linear and exponential deception” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SwlDfrW81gI (13:32) [DraperTV, 2-Jul-2016].

In the video Finette shows that, in general, people have an inability to think and understand exponentially. He notes that we live in a natural world where change is linear and predictable and this is how our thinking has evolved. In innovation cycles such as the current technology and information / knowledge cycles the change is exponential and challenges our way of thinking. He notes that exponential change starts slow and often results in disappointment. By building momentum the change eventually reaches a point of crossover with our linear thought process, a point of acceptance. From this point onwards the change moves past our linear thinking to chaos and amazement at the speed and complexity of the change. The value comes from capitalising on this chaos and amazement. For us, this is part of stakeholder engagement, organisational change management, management controls and risk management.

Some things to consider:

  • How we change our conceptual understanding of the world. We can reset the end position of our linear thinking line

  • Intuition as a powerful tool. Intuition by-passes analytical reasoning and may be a gateway to exponential thinking  

  • Knowledge retention and rote learning as an automated function. Opening up opportunity for critical thinking and situational engagement. Paving the way to broader or narrower horizons

What exponential change is now part of your every-day? What has it saved you? What has it cost you?

How does this thinking apply to you as a Project Manager? What are your teams and stakeholders dreaming of that others cannot grasp? What linear thinking needs to be challenged to move forward? How will you tell the story of exponential change to your stakeholders? What risk profile needs to be agreed to accommodate the innovation cycles you manage? What is an appropriate delivery method to manage this change? How are you forecasting the value of the change? Does this forecast match where the change is on the exponential curve?

Why is this important? Good question. If we are not equipped to understand exponentially then regularly adjusting our linear thinking based on our situation and how we interpret it resets our point of acceptance. This resetting of the point of acceptance constructs a historical exponential curve. We may not be able to predict the future exponential curve though we will be equipped to dream, design, build, utilise from the current point of acceptance as a leap into this new future. In this way we may contribute to this exponential change and reap the value it offers.  After all, is this not the nature of a learning mindset?  

For further reading:

Inviting you to have a view / read and to have a chat with me about your thoughts.

[Originally posted internally in my role as Project Management Practice Lead at The Warehouse Group.]